Barclays has warned that risks to oil prices are increasing as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with a prolonged deadlock threatening to tighten global crude supplies and push markets higher.
The British bank said the longer the current situation persists, the greater the likelihood that oil prices will rise significantly, as traders factor in the possibility of extended supply disruptions from one of the world’s most important energy routes.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, with millions of barrels of oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas shipments normally passing through the waterway every day. Any prolonged restriction on maritime traffic can quickly affect prices, shipping costs, and energy security concerns worldwide.
Brent Forecast Faces Upside Risks
In a recent assessment, Barclays said its 2026 Brent crude forecast of $96 per barrel could be revised higher depending on how long disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue.
The bank estimated that:
- A disruption lasting one additional month could add around $2 per barrel to its forecast.
- A two-month extension could increase the forecast by around $7 per barrel.
- A three-month continuation could add approximately $10 per barrel.
The projections highlight how quickly geopolitical risks can translate into higher oil prices when spare supply capacity and transportation routes come under pressure.
Oil Markets Could Test $150 per Barrel
Barclays warned that spot oil prices could experience a stronger reaction than long-term forecasts suggest.
The bank said immediate market prices could potentially test $150 per barrel if disruptions continue for around three months, as traders respond to fears of reduced availability and increased competition for alternative supplies.
Oil prices already surged this week, briefly reaching $100 per barrel for the first time since May, driven by escalating tensions and concerns over the impact of reduced shipping activity through Hormuz.
Although prices later eased slightly, the market remains highly sensitive to developments around the waterway.
Supply Risks Extend Beyond Oil
The impact of a prolonged Hormuz disruption could extend beyond crude oil markets.
Higher energy prices could increase transportation and production costs across industries, adding pressure to inflation expectations and complicating monetary policy decisions for central banks.
European and Asian economies, which rely heavily on energy imports through maritime routes, would be particularly exposed to sustained increases in oil and gas prices.
Markets Await Diplomatic Progress
Investors are closely monitoring diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Any agreement that reduces tensions and allows maritime traffic to recover could ease the risk premium currently priced into oil markets. However, failure to resolve the situation could leave energy markets vulnerable to further price spikes.
For now, Barclays’ warning underscores a key risk facing global markets: the longer the disruption continues, the greater the potential for a new wave of energy inflation.
Source: Barclays market analysis
