Global maritime authorities are warning that growing fragmentation in international shipping could create a two-tier system in which some vessels operate under established safety and transparency rules while others increasingly function outside them.
The warning came Tuesday from the Consultative Shipping Group (CSG), an informal coalition representing maritime authorities from 18 major shipping nations. The group stressed the central role of the oceans in the world economy, noting that more than 80% of global trade moves by sea.
A sustained breakdown in maritime transport would have consequences far beyond the shipping industry, disrupting supply chains and putting additional pressure on the global economy.
The CSG said shipping networks have already experienced a series of major disruptions in recent years, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, water shortages affecting the Panama Canal and the continuing conflict involving the United States and Iran.
Hormuz adds another layer of pressure
The latest challenge is coming from the Middle East, where conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted one of the world’s most strategically important maritime corridors.
The waterway, located between Iran and Oman, is a crucial route for global energy supplies. Fighting and restrictions around the area have contributed to higher oil and commodity prices, while adding uncertainty for shipping companies and traders.
The CSG argued that geopolitical tensions are increasingly becoming a permanent feature of the global trading environment rather than isolated events.
“Shipping routes are increasingly instruments of leverage and risk,” the group said, highlighting the need for countries to cooperate to maintain an open international trading system.
Diverging rules create higher costs
The shipping authorities also raised concerns about countries adopting increasingly different approaches to maritime trade.
According to the CSG, international shipping depends on predictable rules that apply consistently across jurisdictions. When governments introduce divergent policies or international negotiations stall, companies face greater uncertainty over access to ports, shipping routes and markets.
That uncertainty can make long-term investment and commercial planning more difficult.
The group warned that greater regulatory fragmentation could eventually translate into higher costs throughout the global economy, affecting businesses and consumers as well as shipping operators.
The rise of the shadow fleet
One of the most serious concerns highlighted by the CSG is the growth of vessels operating outside conventional shipping frameworks, particularly ships involved in circumventing international sanctions.
The group pointed to the expansion of a large, loosely regulated “shadow fleet” operating with limited transparency and, in some cases, outside normal insurance and safety arrangements.
The authorities argue that the growth of such operations risks creating a parallel maritime system alongside the established international shipping network.
Such a development could make it harder to monitor vessels, enforce safety standards and maintain environmental protections while increasing uncertainty for legitimate operators.
A potential two-tier shipping market
The CSG’s central concern is that continued fragmentation could eventually produce two distinct maritime systems.
One would operate under internationally recognised rules, insurance requirements, safety standards and transparency obligations. The other would rely increasingly on opaque networks designed to bypass sanctions, restrictions or other established requirements.
The group warned that such a divide would undermine confidence in international shipping and make maritime markets less predictable.
Rather than viewing international cooperation as a limitation on national sovereignty, the CSG argued that cooperation is increasingly necessary for governments to manage an interconnected global economy.
Chokepoints expose the vulnerability
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz illustrates the wider risks facing global trade.
When a major maritime chokepoint becomes restricted, the consequences can spread rapidly through energy markets, shipping costs, commodity prices and inflation.
For businesses that depend on international supply chains, the problem is not simply whether a particular vessel can reach its destination. It is whether shipping routes, insurance arrangements, ports and regulatory systems will remain reliable enough to support long-term trade.
The CSG called on maritime nations to reinforce existing international rules and work toward common standards rather than allowing competing systems to emerge.
Its broader warning is that the fragmentation of maritime trade could eventually become a source of economic fragmentation itself.
For an economy that depends heavily on global shipping, the stakes extend well beyond the shipping industry: when the world’s maritime network becomes less predictable, the entire global trading system becomes more vulnerable.
